On Wednesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that the country’s natural gas production and demand in 2020 are likely to fall from last year’s peaks due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Dry gas output is seen to slump to 89.88 bcfd this year, and 86.59 bcfd next year after posting a record high of 92.2 bcfd last year.
Gas consumption is estimated to slip to 82.68 bcfd and 79.14 bcfd in 2021, from last year’s record high of 84.97 bcfd the first fall since 2017 and the first two-consecutive years fall since 2006.
The previous STEO in August estimated 88.65 bcfd for supply and 82.42 bcfd for demand.
Exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to hit 6.27 bcfd this year and 8.73 bcfd next year, compared to last year’s record of 4.98 bcfd. The EIA’s previous forecasts were 5.54 bcfd in 2020 and 7.28 bcfd in 2021.
The country’s coal output to plunge by 28% to 511 t this year, the lowest since 1964. In 2021, it would rise to 600 million t due to the increase in gas prices.
The carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels would drop to 4.6 billion t in 2020, the lowest since 1986, compared to 2019’s 5.130 billion t last year which was the lowest since 1992. Next year, as generators burn more coal, it would climb to 4.84 billion t.
