On Tuesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that the country’s natural gas output and demand would fall from the peak reached in 2019 due to the coronavirus outbreak.
Dry gas output is estimated to go down to 90.64 bcfd this year, and would further drop to 86.81 bcfd next year from last year’s record high of 93.06 bcfd.
Gas consumption is seen to slump to 83.66 bcfd this year, the drop even more next year to 78.73 bcfd, compared to 2019’s record of 85.20 bcfd. If realized, it would be the first annual consumption contraction since 2017 and the first two-consecutive years fall since 2006.
Supply in October is viewed to be higher than its September forecast of 89.88 bcfd and 82.68 bcfd for demand.
Regarding the liquified natural gas (LNG), exports this year would likely break last year’s record high, at 6.32 bcfd, then further soaring to 8.73 bcfd in 2021. This forecast was an upgrade from the 6.27 bcfd for this year predicted in September.
The country’s coal production is seen to nosedive by 26% in 2020, to 525 million short tons or the lowest since 1964. However, it would rise to 625 million short tons next year as the predicted increase in gas prices prompted power plants to consume more coal.
This year’s carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels were forecast to slump to 4.606 billion tonnes or the lowest since 1986. Last year was at 5.142 billion tonnes and in 2021 it would jump to 4.855 billion tonnes on more coal being utilized in power generators.
