Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that the country exported 2.135 million bpd of crude oil in the week through October 9, the lowest in about 14 months. The decline was attributed to the weak export demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Shipping industry sources said weak oil demand had depressed the freight market since the end of May. The market typically sees seasonal highs in the fourth quarter, but market participants said no rates had not picked up.
Analysts expect exports to hover around the current levels in October and November before trending downwards through the end of 2020. US shale oil output is expected to decline in 2021 as the result of massive capital spending cuts by producers amid the height of the pandemic earlier this year. Lower production will likely result in less availability of export supplies. The analysts expect US oil production to fall by 1.2 million bpd in 2021 from 2020. Meanwhile, exports are expected to stand at just 2.1 million bpd, compared to 3.22 million bpd in the January-August period of 2020.
