The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expected US crude oil production to be relatively flat through 2021. According to EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the US pumped a record 12.9 million bpd of crude oil in November 2019. However, US crude oil output fell to 10.0 million bpd in May 2020 amid efforts to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Production rose to 10.6 million bpd in August and is expected to be near that level through the end of next year.
EIA also forecast that annual global petroleum demand would average 92.9 million bpd this year and increase to 98.8 million bpd next year. However, it will remain below last year’s level of 101.5 million bpd. The gradual recovery in the world’s petroleum demand contributes to EIA’s forecast of higher Brent crude oil price next year. According to the agency, Brent crude prices would average $41-$47/barrel in 2021. Meanwhile, US WTI price is expected to average $43/barrel in next year’s first half.
