In its April short-term energy outlook (STEO), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts dry natural gas production in the US to fall to 91.7 Bcfd in 2020, after reaching a record high of 92.1 Bcfd last year. US natural gas output is expected to begin declining from approximately 94.4 Bcfd in March to 87.5 Bcfd in December.
Natural gas demand from residential customers is expected to decline by 5.8% year-on-year to an average of 12.9 Bcfd in 2020, mostly due to mild winter in the first quarter. Commercial consumption is also expected to fall by 7.1% year-on-year to 9.0 Bcfd this year due to the slowing economy. Demand from the industrial customers is projected to average 22.9 Bcfd in 2020, relatively unchanged from 2019. Less manufacturing activity will likely diminish the growth potential for industrial natural gas demand this year.
Natural gas spot prices at the Henry Hub fell to an average of $1.74/MMBtu in March due to warm weather, which reduced demand for heating. EIA projects prices to begin increasing in end-Q2, driven by lower production and higher demand from the power sector. EIA predicts prices will pick up to an average of $2.11/MMBtu in 2020 and increase further to an annual average of $2.51/MMBtu in 2021.
According to EIA estimates, the overall US working natural gas inventories reached 2.0 Tcf as of the end of March, 17% higher than the 2015–2019 average. US LNG exports are expected to reach 6.6 Bcf/d in Q3 2020 and 6.0 Bcfd in Q3. Estimated LNG exports in Q3 are 0.3 Bcfd lower compared to the previous STEO, reflecting reduced expected global demand for natural gas.
