According to the company’s website press release on April 18, 2023, Valeura Energy Inc. (TSX:VLE) (“Valeura” or the “Company”), the upstream oil and gas company with assets in the offshore Gulf of Thailand and the Thrace Basin of Türkiye, is pleased to provide a business update, its guidance outlook for the full year 2023 and the results of its third-party independent reserves and resources assessment for its Thailand assets.
Sean Guest, President and CEO commented:
“Following our recently completed acquisition of Gulf of Thailand assets from Mubadala Energy, I am pleased to present Valeura as a cash flow generating business with substantial growth opportunities centered on our strategy of ongoing value generation.
Our global portfolio includes assets which held 2P reserves of 29.1 million barrels of oil, as independently evaluated at December 31, 2022, in addition to an assessed unrisked best estimate 2C contingent resource total of 14.1 million barrels of oil in Thailand, plus our prospective resource in Türkiye. This underscores the substantial value potential of Valeura and highlights the significant running room within our portfolio to continue pursuing the target of reserves replacement. Our focus will always revolve around delivering safe and reliable operations, in a responsible and sustainable way, geared toward cash generation and growth to create deeper value for shareholders.”
Update on Closing the Mubadala Acquisition
On December 6, 2022, Valeura announced a transformational Gulf of Thailand acquisition from Mubadala Energy, which was subsequently completed on March 22, 2023 (the “Mubadala Acquisition”). All net economic benefits accumulated by the Mubadala Acquisition assets from an effective date of September 1, 2022, were included with the acquired entity. Over that approximately seven-month period, the acquired assets’ oil production averaged 20,600 barrels per day (“bbls/d”), on a net working interest basis, generating aggregate revenue of US$363 million, resulting in an average of approximately US$30 million in pre-tax cash flow per month, in line with the Company’s previously published expectation.1,3
At completion of the Mubadala Acquisition on March 22, 2023, the acquired entity held cash and cash equivalent resources of approximately US$243 million. After accounting for, among other things, the impact of inventories, accounts payable, and tax liabilities, the increase in Valeura’s adjusted net working capital position as a result of the Mubadala Acquisition is estimated to be approximately US$105 million.2,3
The Company intends to release its interim consolidated financial and operating results for the three month period ended March 31, 2023 on May 11, 2023. Production from the acquired assets in Q1 2023 was 20,475 bbls/d and capital spending was approximately US$34 million, on a net working interest basis. The Company’s Q1 2023 results will report a portion of these amounts relating to the period from completion of the Mubadala Acquisition through the end of the reporting period (from March 22, 2023 through March 31, 2023).
Notes to reader:
1) Pre-tax cash flow is a non-IFRS measure that represents the cash generated by the assets excluding taxes paid and allows management to assess the cash generative capacity of the business as well as operating and financial performance. It is calculated as revenue, less royalties, less operating costs, including lease costs. The nearest IFRS measure is cash flow from operations, which management estimates as US$135 million, adjusted to add back current tax of US$91 million, and deducting lease payments of US$14 million, resulting in US$212 million, or approximately US$30 million per month.
2) Adjusted net working capital is a non-IFRS measure calculated as current assets (cash, receivables, prepaids and deposits and inventory) less current liabilities excluding current lease liabilities (payables, accrued payables and taxes payable.) Current lease liabilities consists predominantly of liabilities related to lease contracts associated with the Floating Production Storage and Offloading (“FPSO”) and Floating Storage and Offloading (“FSO”) vessels for the producing licences, which the Company views as operating costs. Current lease liabilities were approximately US$18 million at completion. Fair Value adjustments were made to inventory, in accordance with IFRS at the completion date. For all other working capital balances, carrying value approximates fair value. The nearest IFRS measure is working capital, being current assets of US$390 million less non-cash current liabilities of US$303 million, adjusted for current lease liabilities of US$18 million, resulting in US$105 million.
3) Pre-tax cash flow and adjusted net working capital are preliminary management estimates based on data available as of the date hereof and are subject to customary financial statement procedures by the Company and its auditors.
2023 Guidance Outlook
Valeura anticipates total capital spending in 2023 of US$180 – 200 million. In keeping with the acquired assets’ long history of reserves replacement through ongoing activity, much of the capital spending is directed toward infill drilling on producing fields, and is forecast to result in aggregate full year oil production of 20,000 – 22,300 bbls/d. This assumes the start of production at the Wassana field in May 2023 in addition to continued ongoing production operations at the Jasmine, Manora, and Nong Yao fields. Operating cost guidance in 2023 is US$220 – 240 million, which, at the mid-point of the production guidance range, equates to approximately US$30/bbl.
* Includes FPSO and FSO lease costs
The Company intends to fund its operating costs and capital spending through cash generated from ongoing operations. For clarity, all production, operating costs, and capital spending estimates provided above relate to the full calendar year 2023, and accordingly, include amounts relating to the period prior to completion of the Mubadala Acquisition.
Re-investing
Valeura intends to re-invest into its producing fields, with the bulk of its spending directed toward drilling new wells and working over existing wellbores to access additional reservoir sands. The Company is planning a total of 21 new or recompleted wellbores in 2023, seven of which, were drilled or completed in Q1 2023.
Valeura’s re-investment efforts are directed toward a mix of growing aggregate production rates where possible (including through infill drilling at the Wassana field), while mitigating the impact of natural production declines elsewhere (such as the Jasmine and Manora fields). Throughout its operations the Company seeks to extend the economic life of its producing fields, as evidenced by recent drilling successes at the Manora field, which is the most mature asset in the Company’s portfolio, and has seen its life expectancy further prolonged into at least 2025.
Oil production in 2023 is forecast to average 20,000 – 22,300 bbls/d. The production range is largely defined by the sequencing of drilling activity across the portfolio, which the Company continually seeks to optimise, and timing for the Wassana infill drilling programme, which is currently scheduled to start with the arrival of a drilling rig in early Q3 2023.
Development
Valeura intends to invest approximately US$75 million toward the development of the Nong Yao C accumulation, with spending spread over the 2023 and 2024 period. The 2023 component of this development programme entails installation of a Mobile Offshore Production Unit (“MOPU”) facility, which is currently under construction and anticipated to mobilise to the field in Q4 2023, with development drilling starting thereafter. The Company anticipates drilling the first four of a total of nine development wells in 2023. First oil from the Nong Yao C development is planned for Q1 2024 and ultimately is expected to contribute to a net increase in Nong Yao oil production up to a target rate of approximately 11,000 bbls/d in 2024.
Valeura’s guidance estimates and Contingent Resources summary below do not currently include any spending or production relating to the Rossukon oil field development on Licence G6/48. The Company will provide additional clarity on the Rossukon oil field in due course.
Exploration
The Company is seeking a farm-in partner to participate in the next phase of exploration and appraisal on its tight gas play in the Thrace basin of Türkiye. Until such time as a suitable partner arrangement has been agreed, Valeura intends to focus its efforts on maintaining the Thrace basin assets in good standing and has not dedicated material capital spending to the play in 2023.
Further Growth
While Valeura’s immediate focus is on safe, reliable delivery from its existing portfolio, the Company remains focused on growth. This includes the potential to grow further through the mergers and acquisitions market within the Southeast Asia region.
Reserves and Resources
Valeura is pleased to report the results of an independent third-party reserves and resources assessment pertaining to its assets acquired through the Mubadala Acquisition. The reports, dated April 17, 2023, were prepared for Valeura by Netherland, Sewell & Associates, Inc. (“NSAI”) to assess reserves and resources in Licences B5/27 containing the Jasmine and Ban Yen oil fields, G1/48 containing the Manora oil field, and G11/48 containing the Nong Yao oil field, as of December 31, 2022 (the “NSAI Reports”). As these assets have been continually producing during the interim period from January 1, 2023 to the completion of the Mubadala Acquisition on March 22, 2023, an aggregate of 1,650 thousand barrels (“Mbbls”) of reserves presented herein were produced by the previous operator. Additionally, the results of the successful drilling on the Jasmine field in the interim period are not evaluated, nor included in the reserves.
Reserves and resources in the NSAI Reports are in addition to the Company’s previously disclosed reserves and resources on Licence G10/48 containing the Wassana oil field, as disclosed by the Company on March 31, 2023.
Unless otherwise noted, reserves and resources estimates are presented on a before royalties, working interest basis.
Summary of Valeura’s Aggregate Thailand Reserves and Contingent Resources
- Proved (1P) reserves of 20,671 Mbbl of oil;
- Proved and probable (2P) reserves of 29,106 Mbbl of oil, with an estimated future net revenue after income taxes of US$261 million, using a discount rate of 10%;
- Best estimate (2C) unrisked development unclarified contingent resources of 14,124 Mbbl or 2,500 Mbbl on a risked basis.
Net Present Values of Future Net Revenue Based on Forecast Prices and Costs
Net present values of future net revenue from oil reserves are based on cost estimates as of the date of the NSAI Report, and forecast Brent crude oil reference prices of US$84.67, US$82.34, US$80.68 and US$81.04 per bbl for the years ending December 31, 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively, with 2% escalation thereafter. Values are presented on an after tax basis and assume tax loss carry-forwards associated with ownership of the Wassana field are applied only to taxes relating to that asset, resulting in no taxes payable for the Wassana field. The remaining assets are assumed by NSAI to carry their full statutory tax burden.
Contingent Oil and Gas Resources, Development Unclarified
Contingent resources for additional reservoir accumulations are heavy crude oil and light/medium crude oil gas classified as “Development Unclarified” and carry an assessed chance of development ranging from 15% to 20%. These accumulations provide a future opportunity to access additional hydrocarbon volumes.
Webcast
Valeura’s management team will host an investor and analyst webcast at 09:00 Calgary / 16:00 London / 22:00 Bangkok today, April 18, 2023, to discuss its guidance outlook for 2023. The live audio and video feed can be accessed via the link below. Written questions may be submitted through the webcast system or by email to IR@valeuraenergy.com.
For further information, please contact:
Valeura Energy Inc. (General Corporate Enquiries) +1 403 237 7102
Sean Guest, President and CEO
Heather Campbell, CFO
Valeura Energy Inc. (Investor Enquiries) +1 403 975 6752 / +44 7392 940 495
Robin James Martin, Vice President, Communications and Investor Relations
Auctus Advisors LLP (Corporate Broker to Valeura) +44 (0) 7711 627 449
Jonathan Wright
CAMARCO (Public Relations, Media Adviser to Valeura) +44 (0) 20 3757 4980
Owen Roberts, Billy Clegg
About the Company
Valeura Energy Inc. is a Canada-based public company engaged in the exploration, development and production of petroleum and natural gas in Thailand and in Türkiye, and is pursuing further inorganic growth in Southeast Asia.
Oil and Gas Advisories
Reserves and contingent resources disclosed in this news release are based on an independent evaluation conducted by the incumbent independent petroleum engineering firm, NSAI with an effective date of December 31, 2022. The NSAI estimates of reserves and resources were prepared using guidelines outlined in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook and in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities. The reserves and contingent resources estimates disclosed in this news release are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves and contingent resources will be recovered.
Reserves
Reserves are estimated remaining quantities of commercially recoverable oil, natural gas, and related substances anticipated to be recoverable from known accumulations, as of a given date, based on the analysis of drilling, geological, geophysical, and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally accepted as being reasonable. Reserves are further categorised according to the level of certainty associated with the estimates and may be sub-classified based on development and production status.
Proved reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves.
Developed reserves are those reserves that are expected to be recovered from existing wells and installed facilities or, if facilities have not been installed, that would involve a low expenditure (e.g. when compared to the cost of drilling a well) to put the reserves on production.
Developed producing reserves are those reserves that are expected to be recovered from completion intervals open at the time of the estimate. These reserves may be currently producing or, if shut in, they must have previously been on production, and the date of resumption of production must be known with reasonable certainty.
Developed non-producing reserves are those reserves that either have not been on production, or have previously been on production, but are shut in, and the date of resumption of production is unknown.
Undeveloped reserves are those reserves expected to be recovered from known accumulations where a significant expenditure (e.g., when compared to the cost of drilling a well) is required to render them capable of production. They must fully meet the requirements of the reserves classification (proved, probable, possible) to which they are assigned.
Probable reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves.
Possible reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than probable reserves. It is unlikely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the sum of the estimated proved plus probable plus possible reserves. There is a 10% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the sum of the estimated proved plus probable plus possible reserves.
The estimated future net revenues disclosed in this news release do not necessarily represent the fair market value of the reserves associated therewith.
The estimates of reserves and future net revenue for individual properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effects of aggregation.
Contingent Resources
Contingent resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology or technology under development, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Contingencies are conditions that must be satisfied for a portion of contingent resources to be classified as reserves that are: (a) specific to the project being evaluated; and (b) expected to be resolved within a reasonable timeframe.
Contingent resources are further categorised according to the level of certainty associated with the estimates and may be sub‐classified based on a project maturity and/or characterised by their economic status. There are three classifications of contingent resources: low estimate, best estimate and high estimate. Best estimate is a classification of estimated resources described in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook as the best estimate of the quantity that will be actually recovered; it is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the best estimate. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 50 percent probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the best estimate.
The project maturity subclasses include development pending, development on hold, development unclarified and development not viable. All of the contingent resources disclosed in this news release are classified as development unclarified. Development unclarified is defined as a contingent resource that requires further appraisal to clarify the potential for development and has been assigned a lower chance of development until commercial considerations can be clearly defined. Chance of development is the likelihood that an accumulation will be commercially developed.
Conversion of the development unclarified resources referred to in this announcement is dependent upon (1) the expected timetable for development; (2) the economics of the project; (3) the marketability of the oil and gas production; (4) the availability of infrastructure and technology; (5) the political, regulatory, and environmental conditions; (6) the project maturity and definition; (7) the availability of capital; and, ultimately, (8) the decision of joint venture partners to undertake development.
The major positive factor relevant to the estimate of the contingent development unclarified resources referred to in this news release is the successful discovery of resources encountered in appraisal and development wells within the existing fields. The major negative factors relevant to the estimate of the development unclarified contingent resources referred to in this news release are: (1) the outstanding requirement for a definitive development plan (2) current economic conditions do not support the resource development, (3) limited field economic life to develop the resources and (4) the outstanding requirement for a final investment decision and commitment of all joint venture partners.
If these contingencies are successfully addressed, some portion of these contingent resources may be reclassified as reserves.
The NSAI estimates have been risked, using the chance of development, to account for the possibility that the contingencies are not successfully addressed. Due to the early stage of development for the development unclarified resources, NSAI did not perform an economic analysis of these resources; as such, the economic status of these resources is undetermined and there is uncertainty that any portion of the contingent resources disclosed in this news release will be commercially viable to produce.
Barrels of Oil Equivalent
A boe is determined by converting a volume of natural gas to barrels using the ratio of 6 Mcf to one barrel. Boe values may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 6 Mcf:1 boe is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Further, a conversion ratio of 6 Mcf:1 boe assumes that the gas is very dry without significant natural gas liquids. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilising a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.
Advisory and Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Information
Certain information included in this news release constitutes forward-looking information under applicable securities legislation. Such forward-looking information is for the purpose of explaining management’s current expectations and plans relating to the future. Readers are cautioned that reliance on such information may not be appropriate for other purposes, such as making investment decisions. Forward-looking information typically contains statements with words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “expect”, “plan”, “intend”, “estimate”, “propose”, “project”, “target” or similar words suggesting future outcomes or statements regarding an outlook. Forward-looking information in this news release includes, but is not limited to: the increase in Valeura’s net working capital position as a result of the Mubadala Acquisition; the timing to release its interim consolidated financial and operating results for the three month period ended March 31, 2023; anticipated total capital spending in 2023; anticipated 2023 oil production rates; timing for the start of production at the Wassana field; price realisations approximately equivalent to the Brent crude oil benchmark; anticipated 2023 operating costs; the expectation that no taxes will be payable in respect of the Wassana oil field due to the utilisation of tax loss carry-forwards; the Company’s intent to re-invest into its producing fields with the bulk of spending directed toward drilling new wells and working over existing wellbores and the amount of wells to be drilled and worked over; the Company’s intent to extend the economic life of its producing fields; the life expectancy of its fields; the expected timing for the Wassana infill drilling programme; the anticipated investment toward to the development of the Nong Yao C accumulation; timing for the installation of a MOPU facility on Nong Yao C and the start of drilling operations, including the amount of wells to be drilled in 2023; timing for first oil from the Nong Yao C development; the ability to maintain the Thrace Basin licences in Türkiye in good standing; and the potential to grow further through the mergers and acquisitions marketing within the Southeast Asia region.
In addition, statements related to “reserves” and “resources” are deemed to be forward-looking information as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the resources can be discovered and profitably produced in the future.
Forward-looking information is based on management’s current expectations and assumptions regarding, among other things: the ability to successfully re-start production from the Wassana field and the timing; the ability to continue ongoing production operations at the Jasmine, Manora, and Nong Yao fields; the future of the Rossukon oil field development; political stability of the areas in which the Company is operating; continued safety of operations and ability to proceed in a timely manner; continued operations of and approvals forthcoming from governments and regulators in a manner consistent with past conduct; future drilling activity on the required/expected timelines; the prospectivity of the Company’s lands; the continued favourable pricing and operating netbacks across its business; future production rates and associated operating netbacks and cash flow; decline rates; future sources of funding; future economic conditions; the impact of inflation of future costs; future currency exchange rates; interest rates; the ability to meet drilling deadlines and fulfil commitments under licences and leases; future commodity prices; the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine; royalty rates and taxes; future capital and other expenditures; the success obtained in drilling new wells and working over existing wellbores; the performance of wells and facilities; the availability of the required capital to funds its exploration, development and other operations, and the ability of the Company to meet its commitments and financial obligations; the ability of the Company to secure adequate processing, transportation, fractionation and storage capacity on acceptable terms; the capacity and reliability of facilities; the application of regulatory requirements respecting abandonment and reclamation; the recoverability of the Company’s reserves and contingent resources; future growth; the sufficiency of budgeted capital expenditures in carrying out planned activities; the impact of increasing competition; the ability to efficiently integrate assets and employees acquired through acquisitions, including the Mubadala Acquisition; global energy policies going forward; future debt levels; and the Company’s continued ability to obtain and retain qualified staff and equipment in a timely and cost efficient manner. In addition, the Company’s work programmes and budgets are in part based upon expected agreement among joint venture partners and associated exploration, development and marketing plans and anticipated costs and sales prices, which are subject to change based on, among other things, the actual results of drilling and related activity, availability of drilling, offshore storage and offloading facilities and other specialised oilfield equipment and service providers, changes in partners’ plans and unexpected delays and changes in market conditions. Although the Company believes the expectations and assumptions reflected in such forward-looking information are reasonable, they may prove to be incorrect.
Forward-looking information involves significant known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Exploration, appraisal, and development of oil and natural gas reserves and resources are speculative activities and involve a degree of risk. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by the Company including, but not limited to: the ability of management to execute its business plan or realise anticipated benefits from the Mubadala Acquisition; the risk of further disruptions from the COVID- 19 pandemic; competition for specialised equipment and human resources; the Company’s ability to manage growth; the Company’s ability to manage the costs related to inflation; disruption in supply chains; the risk of currency fluctuations; changes in interest rates, oil and gas prices and netbacks; potential changes in joint venture partner strategies and participation in work programmes; uncertainty regarding the contemplated timelines and costs for work programme execution; the risks of disruption to operations and access to worksites; potential changes in laws and regulations, the uncertainty regarding government and other approvals; counterparty risk; the risk that financing may not be available; risks associated with weather delays and natural disasters; and the risk associated with international activity. The forward- looking information included in this new release is expressly qualified in its entirety by this cautionary statement. See the most recent AIF and MD&A for a detailed discussion of the risk factors.
Certain forward-looking information in this news release may also constitute “financial outlook” within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Financial outlook involves statements about Valeura’s prospective financial performance or position and is based on and subject to the assumptions and risk factors described above in respect of forward-looking information generally as well as any other specific assumptions and risk factors in relation to such financial outlook noted in this news release. Such assumptions are based on management’s assessment of the relevant information currently available, and any financial outlook included in this news release is made as of the date hereof and provided for the purpose of helping readers understand Valeura’s current expectations and plans for the future. Readers are cautioned that reliance on any financial outlook may not be appropriate for other purposes or in other circumstances and that the risk factors described above or other factors may cause actual results to differ materially from any financial outlook.
The forward-looking information contained in this new release is made as of the date hereof and the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required by applicable securities laws. The forward-looking information contained in this new release is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
Additional information relating to Valeura is also available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
