The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in its June Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) revised its forecast on non-OPEC liquids production growth (including processing gains) for this year. OPEC now expects non-OPEC liquids production to decline by 3.2 million bpd year-on-year, 0.3 million bpd higher than May’s assessment.
OPEC’s revision is based on strong adherence by ten non-OPEC producers participating in the OPEC+ production cuts deal (Declaration of Cooperation - DoC). Oil production by these countries is expected to have dropped by 2.59 million bpd in May, while output by ten OPEC producers is estimated to have fallen by 6.30 million bpd from April to 24.19 million bpd in May, a secondary source said.
At the same time, oil output by non-DoC producers is estimated to have decreased by 2.0 million bpd in April and by another 0.8 million bpd in May, mostly in the US and Canada. Oil production from the US and Canada is likely to decline by 1.8 million bpd this year. Norway, Brazil, Guyana, and Australia are expected to be the only producers that would see production growth in 2020.
OPEC’s natural gas liquids (NGLs) production is estimated to fall by 0.03 million bpd to an average of 5.23 million bpd in 2020. Last year, OPEC’s NGLs output fell 0.08 million bpd year-on-year to 5.26 million bpd.
