The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report that China’s carbon emissions would peak by 2030 before falling to net-zero in 2060. However, the Paris-based agency believes that Beijing could deploy measures to put its CO2 emissions on track to peak by the mid-2020s and reach carbon-neutrality before 2060. In the report’s baseline scenario, solar is expected to become China’s top energy source by around 2045. In contrast, demand for coal, crude oil, and natural gas is projected to drop by 80%, 60%, and 45%, respectively, by 2060 compared to 2020.
However, the IEA said that China could accelerate its decarbonisation pace through emissions trading scheme (ETS), power market reforms, faster coal phaseout, accelerated deployment of low-carbon technologies, and quicker efficiency improvements. In the report’s accelerated scenario, CO2 emissions from the energy sector, which accounts for 90% of China’s total emissions, are expected to fall 20% by 2030. The share of non-fossil fuels in China’s primary energy mix rises from 15% in 2020 to 26% by 2030, compared to 23% in the baseline scenario. Meanwhile, the share of coal in power generation will shrink from 63% in 2020 to 38% in 2030, compared to 47% in the baseline scenario.
