- Supply condition provided cushions to PE prices in the domestic market
- Demand improvement was seen in June
- Market players voice out different outlook
In April, SSESSMENTS.COM noted that the leading Indonesian polyolefins producer decided to roll over local offers for HDPE and LLDPE grades on the week commencing April 6. However, starting from the second week until the final week of the month, the producer made a continuous reduction on offers. During those weeks, the total price reduction recorded for HDPE Blow Moulding and HDPE Film were between IDR2,200,000-2,570,000/ton ($152-178/ton) and IDR2,200,000-2,890,000/ton ($152-200/ton) respectively. While for LLDPE Film C4, the total reduction was between IDR2,000,000-2,250,000/ton ($139-156/ton). Similarly, for localized Southeast Asian cargoes, firm offers were only recorded in the first week of the month and starting from the second week until the end of the month, the offers were generally on a downtrend. Moving to May, market sources reported that the offers for local and localized PE cargoes in the country were generally stable as the downward adjustment was only recorded in the first week of the month. In the first week of May, the leading Indonesian polyolefins producer reduced offers for HDPE and LLDPE grades between IDR130,000-140,000/ton ($9-10/ton) and by IDR290,000/ton ($20/ton) respectively. However, some traders attempted a price increase of between IDR400,000-420,000/ton ($28-29/ton) for HDPE Film and IDR500,000-530,000/ton ($35-37/ton) for LLDPE Film C4 amid the relatively tight supply stemming from the unplanned shutdown at the leading polyolefins producer’s PE plant.
Starting from the second week until the final week of May, SSESSMENTS.COM noted that the price list from the leading Indonesian polyolefins producer recorded a total increase of IDR440,000/ton ($30/ton) for HDPE Blow Moulding, IDR670,000/ton ($46/ton) for HDPE Film, and IDR860,000/ton ($59.5/ton) for LLDPE Film C4. Similarly, offers for local and localized Southeast Asian PE cargoes via traders on the week commencing May 11 were stable to firmer following the local producer’s pricing strategy, with a significant increment of IDR900,000/ton ($62/ton) and IDR1,100,000/ton ($76/ton) was recorded on offers for HDPE Film and LLDPE Film C4 respectively on a weekly comparison. As tightness in supply persisted, local PE offers in Indonesia were generally recorded in an upward trend during June, except for some local trades who decided to lower the offers on the week commencing June 15 due to the slow sales. In total, the reduction made by the leading polyolefins producer was between IDR990,000-1,020,000/ton ($69-71/ton) for both HDPE Blow Moulding and HDPE Film offers. While for LLDPE Film C4 and mLLDPE C6, the total increment was between IDR1,350,000-1,370,000/ton ($93.5-95/ton) and by IDR650,000/ton ($45/ton) respectively. Another local producer also announced offers on June 2, with an upward adjustment of IDR1,100,000/ton ($76/ton) for HDPE and LLDPE grades compared to the offer level announced on May 11. From the traders’ side, sources added that the most notable adjustment of IDR900,000/ton ($62/ton) for LLDPE Film C4 was seen on the week commencing June 22 triggered by the unexpected shutdown at leading polyolefins producers’ LLDPE plant that led to tighter supply for LLDPE Film C4.
From the import market, SSESSMENTS.COM noted that price movements for import PE cargoes of various origins during April were generally stable to softer between $20-60/ton on week-on-week comparison. However, an upward adjustment of between $10-30/ton on a weekly comparison was recorded in the third week of April for Middle Eastern HDPE Film cargoes as suppliers claimed that offers in the previous week were too low. Moving to May, import PE offers of various origins to the Indonesia market were recorded on an uptrend with increases between $5-20/ton on week-on-week comparison. However, sources stated that the most notable adjustment was captured on the week commencing May 25 for US LLDPE Film C4 cargoes between $60-70/ton on biweekly comparison. Further added, the cargoes were already available at Port Klang, Malaysia. Entering June, the offers for import PE cargoes were still recorded on an uptrend. In total, import Thai cargoes reportedly increased between $90-135/ton for HDPE Film, $20-50/ton for LDPE Film, $80-135/ton for LLDPE Film C4, and $20/ton for mLLDPE C6. Likewise, offers for Singaporean HDPE Blow Moulding cargoes also surged by $100/ton on the monthly comparison. Meanwhile, July shipment offers for HDPE Film and LLDPE Film C4 from a Saudi PE producer hiked by $100/ton and $90/ton respectively from June shipment. SSESSMENTS.COM’s pricing database also showed that the deals for US LLDPE Film C4 with cargoes available at Port Klang, Malaysia was concluded at $900/ton on LC at sight, CIF Indonesia Main Port basis in late June, between $70-80/ton higher compared to the done deals achieved on the week commencing June 8. Although overall responses were deemed satisfactory as sellers were still able to conclude deals at the initial offer levels or slightly lower, some buyers were showing resistance towards the high offers and preferred to make purchases on small volume.
During April and May, PE demand in Indonesia was sluggish affected by several factors, such as Coronavirus pandemic as well as the biggest annual celebration for Muslims; Ramadhan (fasting month) and Eid Al-Fitr holiday. Due to the large-scale social restrictions amid pandemic, sources revealed that converters preferred to source local materials as anticipation of logistical constraints, although import prices in April were very low. Owing to the low purchasing power on end-consumers’ end amid pandemic, SSESSMENTS.COM was informed that most converters in Indonesia were running at 50-80% from the normal rate during May. Moreover, the Indonesian market was quiet during the second half of May due to the Eid Al-Fitr holiday. Entering June, PE demand in Indonesia was considered healthy as compared to demand in May. Demand for PE resins gradually improved as converters gained confidence to purchase raw materials since end-buyers started to submit orders following the implementation of “new normal” policy. Market sources also mentioned that the strongest demand was recorded for hygiene and health-related products amid the Coronavirus pandemic. Other than that, demand for single-use plastic bags and fashion bags also reported healthy.
Throughout Q2 2020, PE supply in Indonesia was tight. In April, tightness in supply for HDPE Blow Moulding and HDPE Film was reported from the leading Indonesian polyolefins as the producer closed its HDPE plant with capacity of 200,000 tons/year since the week commencing April 13. The plant remained shut for maintenance until April 24 and the production for HDPE Film resumed in the week commencing April 27. While for HDPE Blow Moulding, the production restarted in early May. However, sources informed SSESSMENTS.COM that the leading polyolefins producer’s HDPE plant with capacity of 136,000 tons/year and HDPE/LLDPE swing plant with a capacity of 400,000 tons/year experienced an unplanned shutdown in early and remained closed until mid-May which led to supply shortage during the month. While in June, tightness in the domestic market persisted as the leading polyolefins producer had no spot offers due to limited supply and needed to clear backlogs. Moreover, PE supply from regional producers, such as Thailand was also tight. On top of that, the leading Indonesian polyolefins producer’s LLDPE plant with a capacity of 400,000/ton experienced an outage twice in June, which was in early June and on June 22. The plant which produces LLDPE Film C4 and LLDPE Roto 3840 restarted on July 1 morning and has been able to produce prime grade materials since July 6.
Pertaining to the outlook, market players in Indonesia express different opinions to SSESSMENTS.COM. Some players believe that local and import PE prices will remain firm as supported by the strong crude oil and feedstock prices coupled with the tightness in supply. However, some others are unsure regarding the price and demand movement as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Indonesia continues to increase after the implementation of “new normal” policy, which might affect buying sentiment.